Minnesota's 1st Congressional District
92%
GOP
8%Dem
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +13.6·80% of simulations: R +26.1 to R +1.2
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +10.4
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +6.5
National Environment
current political climate
D +2.7
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.6
Forecasted margin
R +13.6
Polls
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ragnar Research Partners | Mar 14, 2026 | R +10 | 400 | lv |
| Public Policy Polling | Feb 3, 2026 | R +3 | 708 | rv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time
D 8%
R 92%
Race Details
- Expert Ratings
- District Lean
- This district leans strongly Republican (R+11).
- Candidates
- Jake Johnson (D) Brad Finstad (R) (inc.)