Minnesota Senate
83%
Dem
17%GOP
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: D +9.6·80% of simulations: R +3.4 to D +22.7
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
D +4.6
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
D +2.4
National Environment
current political climate
D +3.3
Polls
recent state and district polling
R +0.7
Forecasted margin
D +9.6
Polls
Polls (7)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Impact Research | May 28, 2026 | D +7 | 808 | lv |
| Emerson College | Feb 8, 2026 | D +6 | 1,000 | lv |
| Emerson College | Feb 8, 2026 | D +7 | 1,000 | lv |
| Public Policy Polling | Sep 16, 2025 | D +4 | 1,015 | lv |
| Public Policy Polling | Sep 16, 2025 | D +2 | 1,015 | lv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
The model has heard from everyone. Unless something changes, this is our best guess.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time
D 83%
R 17%
Race Details
- Expert Ratings
- State Lean
- This state leans Democratic (D+5).
- Candidates
- Peggy Flanagan (D) Adam Schwarze (R)
- Seat Context
- Open seat. The incumbent is not seeking reelection.