Washington's 3rd Congressional District
59%
Dem
41%GOP
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: D +2.3·80% of simulations: R +11.2 to D +15.7
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +3.3
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
D +3.1
National Environment
current political climate
D +3.5
Polls
recent state and district polling
R +1.0
Forecasted margin
D +2.3
Polls
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| co/efficient | Apr 29, 2026 | R +7 | 982 | lv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time
D 59%
R 41%
Race Details
- Expert Ratings
- District Lean
- This is a competitive district that leans slightly Republican (R+4).
- Candidates
- Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D) (inc.) John Braun (R)
- Notes
- Top-two primary