Washington's 5th Congressional District
95%
GOP
5%Dem
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +15.8·80% of simulations: R +27.8 to R +3.7
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +9.7
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +10.9
National Environment
current political climate
D +2.8
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +2.0
Forecasted margin
R +15.8
Polls
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tavern Research | May 25, 2026 | R +8 | 578 | lv |
| Tavern Research | May 25, 2026 | R +6 | 578 | lv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time
D 5%
R 95%
Race Details
- Expert Ratings
- District Lean
- This district leans strongly Republican (R+11).
- Candidates
- Carmela Conroy (D) Michael Baumgartner (R) (inc.)
- Notes
- Top-two primary