Wisconsin's 3rd Congressional District
55%
GOP
45%Dem
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +1.2·80% of simulations: R +13.5 to D +11.1
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +6.2
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
D +1.2
National Environment
current political climate
D +3.2
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.6
Forecasted margin
R +1.2
Polls
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Impact Research | May 31, 2026 | D +4 | 500 | lv |
| Impact Research | Feb 17, 2026 | D +1 | 500 | lv |
| Public Policy Polling | Oct 15, 2025 | D +2 | 609 | rv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
This is a textbook coin flip. If the polls start to suggest otherwise, that makes things interesting.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time
D 45%
R 55%
Race Details
- Expert Ratings
- District Lean
- This district leans Republican (R+7).
- Candidates
- Rebecca Cooke (D) Derrick Van Orden (R) (inc.)