New York's 1st Congressional District
86%
GOP
14%Dem
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +11.9·80% of simulations: R +26.3 to D +2.5
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +7.3
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +7.9
National Environment
current political climate
D +3.1
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.2
Forecasted margin
R +11.9
Polls
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | Dec 11, 2025 | R +3 | 579 | rv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time
D 14%
R 86%
Race Details
- Expert Ratings
- District Lean
- This district leans Republican (R+8).
- Candidates
- Christopher Gallant (D) Nick LaLota (R) (inc.)