New York's 4th Congressional District
79%
Dem
21%GOP
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: D +9.1·80% of simulations: R +5.8 to D +24.0
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
D +4.2
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
D +1.6
National Environment
current political climate
D +3.4
Polls
recent state and district polling
R +0.1
Forecasted margin
D +9.1
Polls
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Impact Research | Feb 17, 2026 | D +5 | 500 | lv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time
D 79%
R 21%
Race Details
- Expert Ratings
- District Lean
- This is a competitive district that leans slightly Democratic (D+5).
- Candidates
- Laura Gillen (D) (inc.) Dennis McGrath (R)