New York's 18th Congressional District
91%
Dem
9%GOP
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: D +14.5·80% of simulations: D +0.9 to D +28.2
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
D +4.4
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
D +6.9
National Environment
current political climate
D +3.4
Polls
recent state and district polling
R +0.2
Forecasted margin
D +14.5
Polls
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Impact Research | Feb 17, 2026 | D +7 | 500 | lv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time
D 91%
R 9%
Race Details
- Expert Ratings
- District Lean
- This is a competitive district that leans slightly Democratic (D+5).
- Candidates
- Patrick Ryan (D) (inc.) Republican challenger pending