2024 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION FORECAST
Joe Biden suspended his re-election bid on July 21, 2024.
Donald Trump had a 63% chance of winning the Electoral College while Joe Biden had a 37% chance.
Donald Trump was projected to win the national popular vote by 1.8%.
For comparison, Joe Biden won the popular vote by 4.5% in 2020.
Click here to view the current forecast.
Trump 297 TOSSUP 44 Biden 197
Additional Probabilities
Biden wins Electoral College (350+) landslide: 8%
Trump wins Electoral College (350+) landslide: 20%
Biden wins national popular vote by 10%+: 4%
Trump wins national popular vote by 10%+: 11%
Biden wins a state he didn’t win in 2020: 43%
Trump wins a state he didn’t win in 2020: 96%
Biden loses popular vote but wins election: 2%
Trump loses popular vote but wins election: 9%
Both major candidates tie with 269 EVs each: <1%
Conditional Odds
Biden wins election while losing Arizona: 17%
Trump wins election while losing Arizona: 32%
Biden wins election while losing Georgia: 23%
Trump wins election while losing Georgia: 34%
Biden wins election while losing Michigan: 6%
Trump wins election while losing Michigan: 28%
Biden wins election while losing Nevada: 19%
Trump wins election while losing Nevada: 36%
Biden wins election while losing Pennsylvania: 8%
Trump wins election while losing Pennsylvania: 20%
Biden wins election while losing Wisconsin: 10%
Trump wins election while losing Wisconsin: 25%
Likeliest Tipping Point States
Pennsylvania - 16%
Texas - 11%
Michigan - 11%
Florida - 8%
North Carolina - 7%
Georgia - 7%
Wisconsin - 6%
Arizona - 5%
Virginia - 4%
Minnesota - 3%
Nevada - 3%