Trump 268 Harris 270

Additional Probabilities

Harris wins Electoral College (350+) landslide: 19%
Trump wins Electoral College (350+) landslide: 6%

Harris wins national popular vote by 10%+: 11%
Trump wins national popular vote by 10%+: 1%

Harris wins a state Biden didn’t win in 2020: 67%
Trump wins a state he didn’t win in 2020: 87%

Harris loses popular vote but wins election: 1%
Trump loses popular vote but wins election: 14%

Both major candidates tie with 269 EVs each: <1%

Conditional Odds

Harris wins election while losing Arizona: 36%
Trump wins election while losing Arizona: 16%

Harris wins election while losing Georgia: 40%
Trump wins election while losing Georgia: 19%

Harris wins election while losing Michigan: 14%
Trump wins election while losing Michigan: 13%

Harris wins election while losing Nevada: 37%
Trump wins election while losing Nevada: 21%

Harris wins election while losing North Carolina: 34%
Trump wins election while losing North Carolina: 10%

Harris wins election while losing Pennsylvania: 18%
Trump wins election while losing Pennsylvania: 9%

Harris wins election while losing Wisconsin: 19%
Trump wins election while losing Wisconsin: 13%

Likeliest Tipping Point States

Pennsylvania - 17%
Michigan - 12%
Texas - 9%
North Carolina - 9%
Georgia - 7%
Wisconsin - 7%
Florida - 6%
Arizona - 5%
Virginia - 4%
Iowa - 3%
Minnesota - 3%
Nevada - 3%

Electoral College Bias
Win Probabilities by Popular Vote Margin