Trump 218 TOSSUP 94 Harris 226

Additional Probabilities

Harris wins Electoral College (350+) landslide: 24%
Trump wins Electoral College (350+) landslide: 12%

Harris wins national popular vote by 10%+: 18%
Trump wins national popular vote by 10%+: 5%

Harris wins a state Biden didn’t win in 2020: 73%
Trump wins a state he didn’t win in 2020: 86%

Harris loses popular vote but wins election: 2%
Trump loses popular vote but wins election: 10%

Both major candidates tie with 269 EVs each: <1%

Conditional Odds

Harris wins election while losing Arizona: 33%
Trump wins election while losing Arizona: 17%

Harris wins election while losing Georgia: 39%
Trump wins election while losing Georgia: 21%

Harris wins election while losing Michigan: 17%
Trump wins election while losing Michigan: 13%

Harris wins election while losing Nevada: 36%
Trump wins election while losing Nevada: 20%

Harris wins election while losing North Carolina: 34%
Trump wins election while losing North Carolina: 13%

Harris wins election while losing Pennsylvania: 19%
Trump wins election while losing Pennsylvania: 9%

Harris wins election while losing Wisconsin: 22%
Trump wins election while losing Wisconsin: 12%

Likeliest Tipping Point States

Pennsylvania - 13%
Texas - 10%
Michigan - 10%
Florida - 9%
North Carolina - 7%
Georgia - 6%
Wisconsin - 6%
Arizona - 5%
Virginia - 4%
Minnesota - 4%

Electoral College Bias
Win Probabilities by Popular Vote Margin