55%
45%Dem
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Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Tossup
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R
Where the House Breaks
Control Odds Over Time
House control odds - D and GOP chance of control through Jun 8, 2026
Dem 45%
GOP 55%
Range of Outcomes
All 435 House Races
| CO-08Manny Rutinel vs Gabe Evans | Tossup | 51%49% | D +0.2 |
| CA-22TBD vs David Valadao | Tossup | 49%51% | R +0.2 |
| MI-07Bridget Brink vs Tom Barrett | Tossup | 51%49% | D +0.2 |
| PA-07Bob Brooks vs Ryan Mackenzie | Tossup | 49%51% | R +0.3 |
| FL-25Debbie Wasserman Schultz vs Michael Carbonara | Tossup | 48%52% | R +0.5 |
| VA-02Elaine Luria vs Jennifer Kiggans | Tossup | 53%47% | D +0.9 |
| IA-03Sarah Trone Garriott vs Zach Nunn | Tossup | 47%53% | R +0.9 |
| PA-10Janelle Stelson vs Scott Perry | Tossup | 46%54% | R +1.0 |
| TX-34Vicente Gonzalez vs Eric Flores | Tossup | 46%54% | R +1.0 |
| IA-01Christina Bohannan vs Mariannette Miller-Meeks | Tossup | 45%55% | R +1.3 |
| WI-03Rebecca Cooke vs Derrick Van Orden | Tossup | 45%55% | R +1.2 |
| AZ-06Joanna Mendoza vs Juan Ciscomani | Tossup | 55%45% | D +1.4 |
| OH-09Marcy Kaptur vs Derek Merrin | Tossup | 44%56% | R +1.4 |
| FL-14Kathy Castor vs Robert Rochford | Tossup | 44%56% | R +1.6 |
| MI-10Eric Chung vs Robert Lulgjuraj | Tossup | 44%56% | R +1.7 |
| NJ-07Rebecca Bennett vs Thomas Kean | Tossup | 58%42% | D +1.9 |
| AZ-01Jonathan Treble vs Thomas Feely | Tossup | 58%42% | D +2.3 |
| WA-03Marie Gluesenkamp Perez vs John Braun | Tossup | 59%41% | D +2.3 |
| FL-22Lois Frankel vs Anna Medvedeva | Lean R | 38%62% | R +3.3 |
| TX-28Henry Cuellar vs Tano Tijerina | Lean D | 62%38% | D +3.5 |
| VA-01Shannon Taylor vs Robert Wittman | Lean R | 38%62% | R +3.3 |
| PA-08Paige Cognetti vs Rob Bresnahan Jr. | Lean R | 37%63% | R +3.6 |
| NY-17TBD vs Michael Lawler | Lean D | 63%37% | D +3.6 |
| OH-01Greg Landsman vs Eric Conroy | Lean D | 66%34% | D +4.6 |
| CA-13Adam Gray vs Kevin Lincoln | Lean D | 67%33% | D +5.0 |
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