Texas's 15th Congressional District
88%
GOP
12%Dem
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +12.8·80% of simulations: R +26.9 to D +1.3
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +13.0
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +2.4
National Environment
current political climate
D +2.4
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.2
Forecasted margin
R +12.8
Polls
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | Sep 11, 2025 | R +3 | 533 | rv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time
D 12%
R 88%
Race Details
- Expert Ratings
- District Lean
- This district leans strongly Republican (R+14).
- Candidates
- Bobby Pulido (D) Monica De La Cruz (R) (inc.)