Texas's 23rd Congressional District
87%
GOP
13%Dem
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +11.7·80% of simulations: R +25.1 to D +1.6
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +12.0
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +2.6
National Environment
current political climate
D +2.5
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.4
Forecasted margin
R +11.7
Polls
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | Mar 11, 2026 | R +2 | 521 | rv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time
D 13%
R 87%
Race Details
- Expert Ratings
- District Lean
- This district leans strongly Republican (R+13).
- Candidates
- Katy Padilla Stout (D) Brandon Herrera (R)