Texas's 35th Congressional District
78%
GOP
22%Dem
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +8.7·80% of simulations: R +23.4 to D +6.0
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +7.7
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +4.2
National Environment
current political climate
D +3.0
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.2
Forecasted margin
R +8.7
Polls
No district-level polling available. Forecast relies on fundamentals and expert ratings.
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time
D 22%
R 78%
Race Details
- Expert Ratings
- District Lean
- This district leans Republican (R+8).
- Candidates
- Johnny Garcia (D) Carlos De La Cruz (R)
- Seat Context
- Open seat after redistricting. Forecast uses the current 2026 lines.