69%
31%Dem
Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Tossup
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R
Projected flip
Where the Senate Breaks
Democrats have 34 seats that aren't on the ballot. To get to 51, they need 17 out of 35.
34 D seats not up for election
3599% D3698% D3798% D3898% D3997% D4096% D4195% D4295% D4394% D4483% D4570% D4665% D4763% D4860% D4958% D5055% R← GOP Holds | Dem Flips →
51 for majority
5166% R5266% R5375% R5485% R5591% R5692% R5793% R5895% R5996% R6097% R6199% R6299% R6399% R6499% R6599% R6699% R67100% R68100% R69100% RSorted from most likely D to most likely R. The highlighted race is the tipping point. Win that race, win the Senate.
Control Odds Over Time
Senate control odds - D and GOP chance of control through Jun 8, 2026
Dem 31%
GOP 69%
Range of Outcomes
All 35 Senate Races
| OhioSherrod Brown vs Jon Husted | Tossup | 45%55% | R +1.3 |
| MichiganHaley Stevens vs Mike Rogers | Tossup | 58%42% | D +2.0 |
| North CarolinaRoy Cooper vs Michael Whatley | Lean D | 60%40% | D +2.5 |
| MaineGraham Platner vs Susan Collins | Lean D | 63%37% | D +2.9 |
| GeorgiaJon Ossoff vs Buddy Carter | Lean D | 65%35% | D +4.0 |
| TexasJames Talarico vs Ken Paxton | Lean R | 34%66% | R +3.6 |
| AlaskaMary Peltola vs Dan Sullivan | Lean R | 34%66% | R +4.2 |
| New HampshireChris Pappas vs John Sununu | Lean D | 70%30% | D +5.3 |
| IowaJosh Turek vs Ashley Hinson | Lean R | 25%75% | R +6.5 |
| MinnesotaPeggy Flanagan vs Adam Schwarze | Likely D | 83%17% | D +9.6 |
| FloridaTBD vs Ashley Moody | Likely R | 15%85% | R +11.1 |
| NebraskaDan Osborn vs Pete Ricketts | Likely R | 9%91% | R +14.1 |
| MontanaAlani Bankhead vs Kurt Alme | Likely R | 8%92% | R +14.7 |
| South CarolinaAnnie Andrews vs Lindsey Graham | Likely R | 7%93% | R +15.2 |
| VirginiaMark Warner vs TBD | Likely D | 94%6% | D +16.1 |
| KansasSandy Sidel Neumann vs Roger Marshall | Likely R | 5%95% | R +16.3 |
| New JerseyCory Booker vs Justin Murphy | Solid D | 95%5% | D +16.8 |
| New MexicoBen Ray Lujan vs Larry Marker | Solid D | 95%5% | D +16.8 |
| MississippiScott Colom vs Cindy Hyde-Smith | Solid R | 4%96% | R +18.1 |
| IllinoisJuliana Stratton vs Don Tracy | Solid D | 96%4% | D +17.7 |
| ColoradoJohn Hickenlooper vs Janak Joshi | Solid D | 97%3% | D +18.5 |
| LouisianaJamie Davis vs Julia Letlow | Solid R | 3%97% | R +19.1 |
| OregonJeff Merkley vs David Brock Smith | Solid D | 98%2% | D +19.6 |
| DelawareChris Coons vs Michael Katz | Solid D | 98%2% | D +20.2 |
| Rhode IslandJack Reed vs Raymond Mckay | Solid D | 98%2% | D +20.9 |
1–25 of 35
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