California's 1st Congressional District
95%
Dem
5%GOP
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: D +17.6·80% of simulations: D +4.5 to D +30.8
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
D +12.9
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
D +2.3
National Environment
current political climate
D +2.4
Polls
recent state and district polling
Even
Forecasted margin
D +17.6
Polls
No district-level polling available. Forecast relies on fundamentals and expert ratings.
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time
D 95%
R 5%
Race Details
- Expert Ratings
- District Lean
- This district leans strongly Democratic (D+14).
- Candidates
- Michael McGuire (D) James Gallagher (R)
- Notes
- Top-two primary
- Seat Context
- Vacant seat. Special election pending after the incumbent died in office in January 2026.