California's 3rd Congressional District
97%
Dem
3%GOP
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: D +19.4·80% of simulations: D +6.6 to D +32.2
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
D +10.6
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
D +6.1
National Environment
current political climate
D +2.7
Polls
recent state and district polling
Even
Forecasted margin
D +19.4
Polls
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tulchin Research | Jul 10, 2025 | R +2 | 400 | lv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time
D 97%
R 3%
Race Details
- Expert Ratings
- District Lean
- This district leans strongly Democratic (D+12).
- Candidates
- Ami Bera (D) (inc.) Robb Tucker (R)
- Notes
- Top-two primary District recently redrawn
- Seat Context
- Redrawn for 2026 under Prop 50. Forecast uses the current district lines.