California's 41st Congressional District
97%
Dem
3%GOP
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: D +19.6·80% of simulations: D +6.6 to D +32.7
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
D +16.1
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
D +1.3
National Environment
current political climate
D +2.2
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.1
Forecasted margin
D +19.7
Polls
No district-level polling available. Forecast relies on fundamentals and expert ratings.
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time
D 97%
R 3%
Race Details
- Expert Ratings
- District Lean
- This district leans strongly Democratic (D+18).
- Candidates
- Linda Sanchez (D) (inc.) Mitch Clemmons (R)
- Notes
- Top-two primary District recently redrawn
- Seat Context
- Redrawn for 2026 under Prop 50. Forecast uses the current district lines.