California's 48th Congressional District
70%
Dem
30%GOP
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: D +5.9·80% of simulations: R +8.9 to D +20.8
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
D +4.1
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +1.5
National Environment
current political climate
D +3.4
Polls
recent state and district polling
Even
Forecasted margin
D +6.0
Polls
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blueprint Polling | Oct 26, 2025 | D +3 | 517 | lv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time
D 70%
R 30%
Race Details
- Expert Ratings
- District Lean
- This is a competitive district that leans slightly Democratic (D+5).
- Candidates
- Marni von Wilpert (D) Jim Desmond (R)
- Notes
- Top-two primary
- Seat Context
- Open seat. The incumbent is not seeking reelection.