California's 40th Congressional District
87%
GOP
13%Dem
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +12.7·80% of simulations: R +27.2 to D +1.7
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +10.5
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +5.3
National Environment
current political climate
D +2.7
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.4
Forecasted margin
R +12.7
Polls
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tulchin Research | Jan 19, 2026 | R +1 | 800 | lv |
| Tulchin Research | Jan 19, 2026 | Even | 800 | lv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time
D 13%
R 87%
Race Details
- Expert Ratings
- District Lean
- This district leans strongly Republican (R+11).
- Candidates
- Ken Calvert (R) Democratic challenger pending
- Notes
- Top-two primary