Texas's 34th Congressional District
54%
GOP
46%Dem
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +1.0·80% of simulations: R +14.4 to D +12.4
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +6.4
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
D +1.7
National Environment
current political climate
D +3.2
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.5
Forecasted margin
R +1.0
Polls
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| co/efficient | Apr 29, 2026 | R +1 | 777 | lv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time
D 46%
R 54%
Race Details
- Expert Ratings
- District Lean
- This district leans Republican (R+7).
- Candidates
- Vicente Gonzalez (D) (inc.) Eric Flores (R)